Ethiotime1
The Ukrainian counteroffensive around the north-eastern city of Kharkiv is “starting to look very similar to the counteroffensive that ultimately drove Russian troops away from Kyiv and out of western Ukraine entirely”, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict.
It was “forcing the Russian command to make hard choices”, including by making Russian units focus their bombardments on attacking Ukrainian troops rather than the city, the US-based thinktank continued.
Meanwhile, Russian forces may be abandoning their efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in eastern Ukraine in favour of shallower encirclements of the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk.
However, it was “unclear if Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective”, the institute said.
Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas are unlikely to be different.
Continued and expanding reports of demoralisation and refusals to fight among Russian units suggest that the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to be low and may drop further.
If the Russians abandon efforts to advance from Izyum, moreover, Ukrainian forces would be able to concentrate their efforts on defending Severodonetsk-Lysychansk or, in the worst case, breaking a Russian encirclement before those settlements fall.
However, the thinktank also noted Russian forces probably control almost all of the city of Rubizhne as of 12 May and have most likely seized the town of Voevodivka, north of Severodonetsk.
They will likely launch a ground offensive on or around Severodonetsk in the coming days. The relative success of Russian operations in this area combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and the notable decline in the energy of that attempted advance suggest that they may be giving up on the Izyum axis.
The report also noted that Russian forces were strengthening their position on Snake Island, in the Black Sea, in a bid to block Ukrainian maritime communications near they key port city of Odesa.
#Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of #Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats:https://t.co/VxNkHsOInx pic.twitter.com/UcfBQlkQwt
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 13, 2022
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings