Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopia

Introduction

COVID-19 is a global crisis that has affected the health, economic, and social fabric of the world community at an unprecedented scale. Apart from the tremendous toll on lives, livelihoods, and economies, the repercussions of COVID are likely to have a significant impact on the human capital accumulation process in the short and long run (World Bank Group 2020).

Not unlike other sectors, the pandemic has spared no segment of higher education from being severely affected. In fact, together with tourism and travel, higher education has been identified as one of the major sectors upended by the pandemic (The Economist 2020). According to the UN (2020), the multifarious changes that higher education has to adapt to could be grouped under five categories: (1) changes required immediately to deal with the issue of continuity of teaching and research; (2) changes required to maintain the employment of students already placed or likely to be placed in jobs in the next few months; (3) the long-term changes caused by the sudden shift in process, behavior, and new resource development; (4) the changes in the working model of HEIs in terms of the ability of parents and students to afford higher education; and (5) the macro-level changes needed for regulating and facilitating quality higher education in changing times.

Like the rest of the world, COVID-19 is causing a significant strain on the developing world as reflected in many of its negative manifestations. As regards Africa, the pandemic could not have come at a worse time than 2020 when the continent was performing well at many fronts. In the past decade, many African economies have been booming, with half of the fastest growing countries on the globe located on the continent. Africa’s growth performance (3.4% in 2019) was expected to increase to 3.9% in 2020. With an average of 5% of national gross domestic product (GDP) dedicated to education (one of the largest globally), the African region was beginning to witness a revitalization of its higher education sector prior to the onset of the crisis.

Ethiopia has seen unprecedented health, economic, and educational challenges since the onset of the pandemic. The closure of schools and universities has put more than 30 million students and around a million tertiary students out of institutions. Apart from the variety of challenges students are facing, institutional operations have been severely affected both in the public and private domain with more challenges expected in the future. As noted by the UN (2020, 37), ‘In the absence of an effective education response, COVID-19 is likely to generate the greatest disruption in educational opportunities for Ethiopian children in a generation or more.’ Despite the lack of research on the area, anecdotal evidence appears to show that the effect of the pandemic is more pronounced in the private higher education (PHE) sector whose resource base and capacity is too limited to withstand the impact of a crisis of this magnitude.

Purpose of the study

This study was designed to gauge the impact of COVID-19 on the PHE sector in Ethiopia. It particularly seeks to examine:

The initial experiences and reactions of private higher education institutions (PHEIs) toward the pandemic;
The various impacts of the pandemic on the academic and business operations of PHEIs; and
The nature of government interventions and their impact on the PHE sector.

COVID-19 and PHE

In many contexts, the PHE sector appears to be experiencing a higher fatality rate of COVID-19 as compared to the public sector. This happens to be the case especially for the small and specialized private higher education institutions (PHEIs) that have turned out to be the corporate victims of COVID-19 in many countries (Norton 2020). A study in the US indicated that the coronavirus pandemic brought a 47% increase in private colleges’ risk of closure and colleges that are not closing are still going through an incredibly painful process of cuts and budget adjustments (Seltzer 2020). The situation in Malaysia, where 50% of local students and 70% of international students are enrolled in PHEIs, is similarly precarious. Fifty-five percent of Malaysian PHEIs are making trading losses and around 44% are technically financially insolvent (Hunter 2020).

Arguably, in many systems, private colleges cannot count on direct government support or emergency grants to keep them afloat. In contexts where PHEIs do not have any unencumbered assets as security for further loans, they are often forced to rely on increases of shareholders equity or find other sources to help them survive. However, the search for such support from external sources is not easy at a time when institutions are losing their selling points due to the pandemic (Mello 2020). As a consequence, the balance sheets of many private institutions have become unavoidably fragile.

Reports from the different parts of Africa are concurrent with the aforementioned global observations. Private universities in Ghana are currently facing serious cash flow challenges due to reduced admission numbers and the little assistance received from the government. They were unable to pay salaries in the months of March and April because most students had already left their campuses causing about 50% of unpaid fees (Kokutse 2020). In May 2020, many of Uganda’s 45 private universities were struggling to cope in the crisis, some of them claiming that they can no longer meet their bills, let alone pay their teaching staff (Agaba 2020). Similar to Ghana, a number of private universities and other institutions of higher learning in Uganda were struggling even long before the advent of COVID-19, in part because of limited resources and tax levies given to institutions (Agaba 2020). After the pandemic, while some furloughed their staff, others had to inform lecturers that they are unable to remit salaries for the duration of the lockdown or until students return. In Rwanda, where the PHE is assumed to enroll 51% of students, COVID-19 has caused a significant decline in revenue, threatening the loss of experienced staff at a dropout rate of 20% or more (Mbonyinshuti 2020). However, the good thing about Rwanda is the government’s decision to establish a relief fund of RWF100 billion (US$107 million) to support the private sector (including private institutions of higher learning) to recover from the COVID-19 (Mbonyinshuti 2020).

Most of the challenges of the PHE sector are attributed to an over-reliance on student tuition and foreign students and very little support provided by governments. For many PHEIs, the pandemic has presented an unprecedented challenge. Private colleges are expected to suffer more if the economic fallout from the pandemic further compounds the problem.

The research context

In Ethiopia, predictions by the National Planning Commission indicate possible reductions of 2.8% to 3.8% in the national economy due to the impact of the pandemic. Independent researchers show potential reductions in GDP by at least 5.6% for 2020–2021. In an article that appeared in The New York Times in April, the Prime Minister noted that Ethiopia will need an extra US$3 billion by the end of 2020 to address the consequences of the pandemic (Ahmed 2020).

A related problem has been the impact of the pandemic on employment and income across various sectors of the economy. A joint report developed by Ethiopia’s Jobs Creation Commission (JCC) and International Labour Organization (ILO) (2020b) on the impact of COVID-19 on employment, predicted that in a ‘low epidemic’ scenario, which assumes maintaining low prevalence levels of the pandemic, Ethiopia will face a reduction of 1.53% of GDP per month, and a loss of 1.34 million jobs. The report predicts that there could be significant revenue loss in sectors such as culture, sports, entertainment, bars, transportation of persons, personal services, tourism, and export-oriented manufacturing, among others. Some of these are already experiencing damaging revenue losses. For example, Ethiopian Airlines, the largest airline in Africa, which accounts for 3% of Ethiopia’s national output, has reported a loss of US$550 million since February 2020. Floriculture and horticulture, two of the fastest-growing sectors in the economy, experienced an 87% decline in prices and 63% increase in cancellation of orders in the first 2 months of the pandemic. The Ethiopian Hotels Association reported that the travel and tourism sectors will see a growth reduction of 30% in the 2019–2020 fiscal year, with an estimated monthly loss of US$35 million in revenue, and a risk to the jobs of 15,000 employees. Among agriculture, mining, tourism, creative, and IT industries that have been identified by the JCC as key areas for potential job creation, the only sector that appears to be relatively safe for the time being is agriculture, where Ethiopia still has a large share of its workforce.

Another study conducted by the Ethiopia Jobs Creation Commission (JCC) (2020a) revealed that the biggest challenges faced by private firms are payments of rent, invoices, staff wages, and social security contributions. Appropriate targeted fiscal measures, including capital injections, need to be taken in all the above scenarios in order to compensate for deficits and avert job losses and bankruptcies. Most firms suggest waiving tax payments as the most appropriate policy measure to help them keep afloat, followed by the provision of access to working capital at beneficial rates but this has not been done to their level of satisfaction (JCC 2020a).

Research design

This study employed a mixed-methods design. The qualitative aspect of the research design involved keeping a weekly diary of significant events, between the months of April and August, 2020, constructing a written account of sectoral experiences as regards the pandemic and meanings attributed to the experiences. The diary was primarily used to supplement data collected through survey and to draw data from the actual experiences the researcher passed through (Creswell 2012). Two online surveys were conducted between the months of April and May, 2020, and at the end of August, 2020, respectively. The survey questionnaires were sent to all members of the Ethiopian Private Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) and Higher Education Institutions’ Association (N = 110) based in Addis Ababa. Ninety-seven institutions (89%) responded to the first survey while 77 (70%) institutions gave back their answers during the second survey. Both surveys aimed at gauging the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the PHE sector both in the initial stages of the pandemic and towards the time when government has started planning to reopen universities. The results obtained were reported using frequencies, percentiles, and bar graphs.

Major findings of the study

Respondents’ profile

Ethiopian PHE has a history of two decades and comprises around 17% of national higher education enrollment (MoE 2018). Though this share is rather average for sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia is a regional leader in private sector size (Tamrat and Levy 2017). Enrollment spreads over 250 institutions, divided into 4 universities, 6 university colleges, and the remaining institutions and colleges (MoE 2018). Ethiopian PHEIs are dominated by small, demand-absorbing, for-profit institutions, and often family-owned (Tamrat 2020a). Non-profits are few, though generally better resourced, often operated by religious or non-governmental organizations of one sort or the other. While nearly half of the PHEIs are located in the capital, the rest are found across the whole country providing regular and distance programs at TVET, undergraduate, and post-graduate level.

Concurrent with the above general trend, the ownership patterns of the 95 PHEIs that participated in the first survey are dominated by sole proprietorship (21%), and private limited company (66%) which indicates 87% of family ownership. The investment capital of the institutions surveyed is 2.1. billion Ethiopian Birr (USD 56,901,317) (Figure 1).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 1. Ownership patterns of sample institutions.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 1. Ownership patterns of sample institutions.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

The sample institutions currently operate through their 365 branches located in Addis Ababa and the provinces. Though official figures are always hard to obtain, the total number of students accommodated in the sample institutions currently stands at around 289,069. This comprises 180,700 undergraduate students (63%), 95,516 TVET (33%) and 12,853 (4%) post-graduate students. This indicates that the overwhelming majority of students are enrolled in undergraduate and TVET programs (Figure 2).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 2. Program focus of sample institutions.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 2. Program focus of sample institutions.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

In terms of facilities, most PHEIs provide training in rented buildings. Only 18% of the institutions surveyed have their own buildings (Figure 3).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 3. Ownership patterns of buildings.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 3. Ownership patterns of buildings.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

In terms of the human resources deployed within the sector, the sample institutions employ around 9220 instructors out of whom 55% are contractual and part-time staff as compared to 44% permanent staff (Figure 4).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 4. Employment patterns of academic faculty.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 4. Employment patterns of academic faculty.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Initial experiences and reactions to the pandemic

The first confirmed case in Ethiopia, reported on 7 March, was a Japanese advisor employed to provide technical assistance to Ethiopian schools. Things moved quickly after the Ministry of Health reported the case in public media. Ethiopia’s 30 million learners in schools and nearly a million in its 50 public universities and more than 250 private academic institutions were identified as high potential transmission sites. On 16 March, the Prime Minister announced that schools and universities would halt classes for 2 weeks. On 17 March, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education gave further directions on how universities should act for the next 2 weeks as regards the closure. This direction asked all public and private universities to:

Give the necessary awareness to students and make the needed follow up;
Avoid face-to-face meetings in all situations (classrooms, conferences and meetings);
Provide lessons and support through online teaching, handouts, and references;
Practice the recommended hygiene and social distancing practices as recommended by government; and
Set up task forces to respond to the crisis and do the necessary follow up.

In the immediate aftermath of the closure, the government set up a national task force that started, among others, creating the needed awareness and mobilizing the public towards combatting the impacts of the pandemic. Most HEIs, including the privates, responded to the call by donating money, sanitary items, essential supplies, and even their buildings to be used for quarantine and storage purposes. According to a figure obtained from the Ethiopian TVET and Private Higher Education Institutions’ Association, donations worth more than ETB 30 million (nearly US$1 million) were raised by private institutions for the cause. Private medical colleges also enlisted nearly 4000 of their medical students to be deployed by the government to combat the pandemic.

Although the decision to close schools and universities was applauded by the public, it was not easy for many PHEIs to endure the impacts of the pandemic since little preparation had been made towards this end. While there were many confusions and jerk reactions across the sector, the more organized PHEIs were involved in the provision of information and awareness for their community; academic support from a distance; and infrastructural support and institutional continuity (Tamrat 2020b). One unfolding reality in dealing with awareness activities has been the explosion of information, misinformation, and myths that came from different sources. In terms of addressing the health challenges, the purchase of sanitizers, gloves, and masks for use at higher education institutions have also been extremely difficult, especially at the onset of the pandemic, due to the excessive demand for these items across the city of Addis Ababa and due to hoarding by some traders. In most cases, materials purchased were rationed and distributed based on critical need. Washing corners at the gates of all campuses and at identified locations within HEIs were set up. Shifting to the online mode has been another major preoccupation for all private institutions as will be discussed in detail later.

Government direction/intervention

The Ethiopian government has taken a variety of measures and interventions since the onset of the pandemic in order to safeguard the economy and combat COVID-19. On 27 March 2020, the national macro-economic sub-committee issued the following measures it said would be helpful in safeguarding the economy:

Tax exemption for the import of COVID-19 materials and equipment to be used in the prevention and containment efforts.
National Bank of Ethiopia to avail Birr 15 billion (USD 406,435,775) liquidity for private banks to enable them to provide debt relief and additional loans to their customers in need.
Banks to avail foreign currency for importers primarily importing COVID-1B goods and input materials for prevention and containment.
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia to increase the amount of money individuals can transfer through mobile banking, to limit in-person cash handling.
Removal of the minimum price set by the National Bank of Ethiopia on the horticulture sector for flower export.
The Ministry of Revenue to expedite VAT returns to support companies with cash flows.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry to continue strengthening the measures it is undertaking to control price increments and supply shortages of consumer goods.

On Friday 10 April 2020, nearly a month later after the closure of schools, following approval by the Council of Ministers, Proclamation 3/2020 also known as the ‘State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact’ was issued after it was approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Accordingly, the Federal Attorney General issued the following regulations:

The banning of all public gatherings of more than four people.
The banning of greetings by handshake.
The banning of all movements at land borders, except for the flow of cargo and essential goods.
Transportation service providers are to reduce passenger loads by 50% for all national and local journeys with immediate effect. Additionally, train services within Addis Ababa, as well as on the Addis Ababa–Djibouti route, are to operate passenger capacity at 25% on all journeys.
Landlords are banned from evicting or increasing rents on private tenants residing in their properties for the duration of the State of Emergency.
All commercial and private employers bound by the Labour Proclamation will be prohibited from reducing their workforces or prematurely terminating employment contracts.
Students and teachers are banned from meeting and will only be permitted to connect online or by other means that do not contravene social distancing measures.
Although lawyers will still be able to confer with their clients in correctional facilities with the necessary precautions in place, going forward, all other visitations to these facilities will be prohibited.
Sporting activities at all levels are prohibited.
Children’s playgrounds and other such venues will be closed.

On 30 April, the Council of Ministers approved another set of economic measures to support firms and employment which included:

Forgiveness of all tax debts prior to 2014/2015;
A tax amnesty on interest and penalties for tax debt pertaining to 2015/2016-2018/2019; and
Exemption from personal income tax withholding for 4 months for firms who keep paying employee salaries despite not being able to operate due to Covid-19.

The impact of the intervention schemes has been mixed based on particular sectoral needs and characteristics. For instance, the state of emergency appeared sector-neutral and carried a certain populist, protective appeal but it translated to unrealistic commands for PHE. Whereas the initial government shutdown had a largely common impact across sectors, the declaration of a state of emergency loomed as potentially disastrous for many private institutions. Assistance targeted at the PHE sector in the amount of 15 billion birr was far below the actual needs. It was estimated that fiscal resources needed for relief packages could reach Birr 90bn (2.3% of GDP) and central bank liquidity interventions of around Birr 47bn (1.2% of GDP) (CEPHEUS Research and Analytics 2020). Even the limited assistance provided to private enterprises so far appears to have gone mostly to manufacturing, hotel, horticulture, floriculture, and others labeled most affected by the pandemic – PHE was not on that priority list. As a consequence, financial institutions that could have provided substantial assistance to the sector by reducing interest rates and offering long-term loans have not been forthcoming despite some positive gestures. The only workable benefits extended so far to PHEIs have been a 4-month employee income tax exemption, the postponement of pension payments for a few months, and regulation that bans landlords from increasing rents and evicting tenants including PHE institutions.

After a few months into the crisis, on 29 May 2020, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, in a letter written to all HEIs, prohibited both the graduation and promotion of undergraduates and TVET students until face-to-face classes resume, though HEIs were allowed to provide further support and follow up to students who have been following their lessons at a distance. This immediately led to the loss of motivation on the part of students and institutions that did not see the value of continuing their educational services. As this was immediately followed by the beginning of a new summer session in June, the effect of the new direction has been the interruption of online programs at the levels suggested. Meanwhile, aside from discontinuing the online provisions at the undergraduate level, the prolonged shutdown has postponed new admissions.

Impact on academic and business performance of PHEIs

The second objective of this study was to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the academic and ‘business’ performance of PHEIs. While the impact on the academic performance of the public and private sector were similar since they involved the shift to online provision, the impact on business operations was completely different for the two sectors. Public institutions, which have their budget fully covered by the government have had no serious setback in terms of running their operations and paying salaries of employees but the situation at PHEIs has been the opposite.

The challenges of shifting online

Making the transition from a face-to-face teaching to a virtual modality has not been easy in Ethiopia. The limitations have different dimensions including structural, social, and technical. At the technical level, instituting a full-fledged online system for educational delivery is much more than creating connectivity since such an arrangement demands a variety of technology tools, a user-friendly interface, and accessibility standards which many institutions lack. An institution needs to have a clear organizational structure together with responsible people and a budget dedicated to run the online programs and courses. Similarly, online instructors and students had to be equipped with the technical skills that prepare them to teach and learn in the new environment and should be provided support during the course (Tamrat and Teferra 2020). All these required a huge amount of budget, skill, and available infrastructure and human resource which Ethiopian institutions, especially the ill-resourced PHEIs, could not avail.

Shifting to online delivery was especially difficult where there is limited or no internet access. Poor internet access, cost, availability of computers and related technology, little previous preparation, and students’ and teachers’ twin problems of limited technical knowhow and negative attitudes towards the use of information and communication technology stood out as the most prevalent problems. Most institutions are using social media platforms like Facebook, telegram, WhatsApp, and Google classroom in their program delivery, a few are struggling to develop their own learning management systems lately. Despite such efforts, much is not known about the most disadvantaged students who are being left behind. The remarkable initiatives made by many African governments, service providers and the private sector to address current deficiencies in this area through mechanisms such as creating zero-rated access to specific educational websites, universities, digital libraries and online knowledge hubs, and offering free data bundles to students have not been that abundant in Ethiopia (Tamrat and Teferra 2020).

Impact on income

Ethiopian PHEIs rely entirely on student tuition and fees. The fee collection patterns of the sample institutions indicated that an overwhelming majority (73%) used to collect fees on a monthly basis while the remaining 14% collected their fees on a semester basis (Figure 5).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 5. Fee collection patterns of PHEIs.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 5. Fee collection patterns of PHEIs.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

The limitation in collecting monthly fees immediately put many of the PHEIs in jeopardy when the closure of HEIs was announced. Students could not be sure what the future held and were reluctant to pay their fees. Some students even complained about the unfairness of paying anything like their regular fees for merely online education (itself poorly delivered). Another challenge that exacerbated the problem has been the Government prohibition of both the graduation and promotion of TVET and undergraduate students to the next level which created a serious problem for institutions that run these programs. It was earlier noted that 96% of students enrolled in the sample institutions were following programs at these two levels which implies that only a limited number of PHEIs have continued to collect fees from their students. Government policy that crippled undergraduate finance has thus been a weightier problem for private than public since PHE depends almost solely on tuition from its undergraduates.

As exhibited from the responses to the second survey, most PHEIs are currently experiencing a significant loss of income due to the closure in general and MoSHE’s decision to put a ban on the continuity of TVET and undergraduate studies in particular (Figure 6).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 6. Estimated loss of income.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 6. Estimated loss of income.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

The overreliance of institutions on student fees was further exacerbated by the lack of additional sources of income to support their cash flow challenges. All but 2% of institutions responded that they have no other source of income to support their operations. This is not surprising given the fact that most of the Ethiopian PHEIs are owned by individuals and families. The possible impact of the lockdown on new admissions and related challenges is another serious financial stress that is threatening the closure of many institutions, especially the new ones. In fact, the litany of severe financial woes is currently forcing some private institutions to downsize and close some of their branches and units. Most private institutions are also apprehensive about surviving beyond several months. Naturally, the threat tends to be greatest to the newest and flimsiest institutions.

Impact on expenses

The responses given to the survey questions indicate that due to the closure, the strain of paying monthly rent, staff salaries, and other expenses is becoming a serious challenge in the PHE sector. A significant part of institutional expenses was usually allocated for rent since most of the institutions do not operate on their own buildings. Under normal circumstances, along with salary, rent accounts for more than three-fourth of PHE’s monthly expenses (Tamrat 2020a). While the government had appealed for landlords to reduce or waive building rents for all business entities including PHEIs, the result has been discouraging in most cases (Figure 7).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 7. Rent deduction patterns.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 7. Rent deduction patterns.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Despite government demand, an overwhelming majority of PHEIs (54%) did not get rent reduction while only 14% benefited from such arrangements with their landlords. The sample PHEIs noted that due to these challenges they were forced to ask for the postponement of payment periods, abandon some of their branches, and/or settle their rents by taking loans from other sources. The existing form of institutional ownership at PHEIs which is individual or family based must have also contributed to the limited capacity of institutions in terms of drawing additional sources of income.

Another challenge faced by institutions is related to paying the salary of their employees. While a limited number of institutions said they have continued to pay salaries by taking loans from external sources and through the financial support of their shareholders, the majority disclosed the increasing difficulties of meeting this responsibility. There are also some that said they have been forced to make late payments and a few said that they have entered into litigations due to their failure to pay salaries. A few institutions also stated that they were forced to reduce the salary of their employees from 50% to 65% in order to meet the challenges they have been facing.

Impact on employment

There is a need for wider investigations about the actual impact of COVID-19 in order to explore possible damages to existing patterns of employment, graduate employability, and the alignment of government policy with institutional needs. Nonetheless, it can be seen that the impact of COVID-19 is substantial in terms of sustaining existing jobs and graduate employability.

Since the state of emergency prohibited the termination of employment contracts, the loss in this regard must have been negligible. However, many institutions have frozen new employment and stopped employing part-time workers who constitute a significant portion of the workforce in the PHE sector which relies heavily on such staff. As seen earlier in Figure 4, this comprises 55% contractual and part-time staff that PHEIs are employing currently. The reliance of PHEIs on part-time staff may be seen as helpful in terms of reducing institutional expenses but the negative implication in terms of maintaining additional job opportunities is clear.

Another impact of the pandemic on employment is related to the productivity of workers compared to the earlier days. As might be seen Figure 8, institutions claim that the output of their employees has been reduced significantly after the disruption of classes.

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 8. Estimated rate of employee productivity during Covid-19.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

Figure 8. Estimated rate of employee productivity during Covid-19.

Source: Author compilation from survey results.

The pandemic is further expected to have a significant impact on the future employability of graduates across both the public and private sectors. In Ethiopia, this concerns around 150,000 students that higher education institutions graduate every year (MoE 2018). The possible short- and long-term effects of employment on the youth and the challenges of social unrest and instability that could come with it can thus be easily predicted. Given the strains, more challenges along this line are expected if the closures continue for the next few months and even during the post-COVID-19 period.

Leadership challenges

Information obtained from the diary and the two surveys revealed the huge burdens the leadership at PHEIs is carrying in combating the impact of the pandemic. The observations obtained from institutional leaders are related overwhelmingly to the suddenness of the pandemic and their poor preparation. They opined about how their limitation in collecting fees and paying salary and rent has created a condition whereby they have to abandon their normal institutional plans and attend to the day to day challenges they face (e.g. fear about losing their experienced staff). The leaders also disclosed the declining work ethics and their failure to provide enough information about the fate of their institutions due to the information gap that existed at the sectoral level and the uncertainty that abounds. The struggle to convince students to pay and employees to share the financial strains they are going through were identified as the major occupations of institutional leaders for the past few months.

In general, a high level of uncertainty and hopelessness was noted in the feelings and views of leaders toward the fate of their institutions. Although they are hopeful about the new academic year which they insist should begin in September, the feeling of uncertainty still appears to linger in their responses. Further, the limited help obtained from the government so far appears to have worsened the feeling of hopelessness compounded by the fear of the unknown which still appears to haunt most of the leaders.

Views toward government support and decisions

Arguably, the unprecedented nature and scale of the crisis must have put a lot of pressure on policymakers but they are nonetheless expected to be ‘fast, willing to experiment and innovative in identifying policy gaps, and respond quickly and proactively as the pandemic progresses’ (UNCT Ethiopia 2020, x). In their response to the first and second round of survey questions, an overwhelming number of PHEIs expressed their disappointment that their high hopes for government support have not been met. Their expectations mostly were around the provision of tax exemptions, long-term loans, rent waiver or reduction, direct financial support from the government, assistance with online platforms, reduced internet costs, access to computers with reduced costs, etc. As noted earlier, the major benefit most institutions admitted to having received from the government was restricted to a deduction of a 4-month salary tax. Even as regards to this benefit there were institutions that said they knew very little about it and were not given positive directions from relevant authorities.

It appears that while most of the PHEIs were positive about the closure of schools and universities at the initial stage of the pandemic, the last few months have significantly changed their opinions, perhaps due to the experiences they have passed through. Accordingly, as may be seen in the diagram, 35% of the respondents feel that the continued closure of universities for a prolonged period of time is unacceptable (Figure 9).

Enduring the impacts of COVID-19: experiences of the private higher education sector in Ethiopiahttps://doi.org/10.1080/03075079.2020.1859690

Published online:

17 December 2020

Figure 9. Belief in the continued closure of HEIs.

Source: Author compiled from survey results.

Figure 9. Belief in the continued closure of HEIs.

Source: Author compiled from survey results.

The major reasons respondents gave were related to the untimely closure of schools, the decision to close schools without entertaining possible alternatives, the fact that the closure cannot continue for an indefinite period of time, and the precarious condition in which PHEIs find themselves now. Most of the PHEIs suggested that institutions should be reopened as early as possible by taking all the necessary measures that would allow them to live with the pandemic.

The dissatisfaction with limited government support and the limited options available had forced some institutions to seek alternative funding. While most admitted that individual efforts to cover their cash flow challenges have been limited, perhaps due to the impact that this will have on the future performance of the institutions, a significant number of institutions have been approaching financial institutions to get loans, but to little or no avail.

Discussion and conclusion

It is undeniable that COVID-19 is currently having a profound and damaging impact on all types of HEIs and especially the ill-resourced and self-supporting PHEIs in Ethiopia. It can be seen that the PHE sector is already experiencing a lot of strain at all operational fronts. Though its impact is being felt across the whole sector, the threat tends to be greatest to the newest and flimsiest institutions which are facing serious headwinds and are being pushed to the brink of collapse. Apart from derailing the hopes of students and the impact on labor supply, previous experience has shown that the closures of private institutions can entail a variety of challenges that include the loss of student records, difficulties in student transfer to other institutions, labor tensions, and other complex issues that the bankruptcy of any private business brings with it. In fact, the effects are not restricted to individual institutions but also extended to families, regulatory agencies, and government authorities that are often embroiled in endless litigations and bureaucratic engagements, which may not end to the satisfaction of various parties whose cost, money, and energy could be compromised.

Even those PHEIs which may survive the crisis will not be free from additional burdens and fears. One major challenge the post-COVID-19 period will pose for private institutions is related to how they will be able to compensate for the time lost and whether it would at all be possible to pay back the loans and costs incurred. This is compounded by the uncertainty as to when schools will reopen and whether the government will be able to assist in their recovery from the aftermath of the pandemic. One can hope that the demand for PHE is not likely to diminish post-COVID-19, assuming that tuition fees at PHEIs will stay the same and the strain on the public higher education (e.g. competition for public funding from other sectors and impacts of the economic recovery) could open-up spaces for private providers. Interest to invest in such a volatile sector, presently reduced, could return with a national economic rebound and the reopening of institutions.

The long-term effects of COVID-19 on higher education and the question of what shape the recovery will take is still difficult to tell, but there are lessons that the system can glean from the experience so far. Many are of the opinion that such ‘a good crisis’ can spur rethinking creatively some of the traditional ways of doing things. Devinney and Dowling (2020), for instance, note that the COVID-19 pandemic offers universities a once-in-a-generation opportunity to put their dysfunctional strategies behind them. If current challenges have proved anything in the delivery of education, it is the need for PHEIs to commit hugely to the building of their ICT infrastructure to ensure that programs continue to run in the face of difficult times now and in the future. However, this ambition will not be realized without the commitment of the government in improving the ICT infrastructure and MoSHE’s assistance in building the capacity of PHEIs. Survival also demands a compelling vision, the ability to recognize and adapt to changing circumstances, and strong, effective leadership without which institutions in any sector are doomed (Muehlenbeck and Pineda 2019). In fact, PHEIs would be expected to move from ‘a crisis management situation to more long-term planning for the new academic year’ (IAU and ESN n.d.) but the history of Ethiopian PHEIs in terms of managing such crisis and developing long-term risk management strategies has been very low (Tamrat and Teferra 2019).

It is possible to envision a post-COVID future in which PHE has lost much bad as well as some good from its long-unbridled expansion and in which some of the fitter not only survive but improve their organizational management and certainly their use of technology in educational provision. While the future may not be quite as bleak as suggested, the private sector’s continuity depends heavily on what can be done today and during the post-COVID-19 period. It is understandable that the government is overwhelmed by a multitude of social, political, and economic pressures unleashed by COVID-19 as it is preparing for the reopening of higher education institutions. However, unless a substantial intervention is made in terms of assisting the PHE sector and/or influencing financial institutions to provide meaningful assistance, this sector, which boasts the largest number of students in Africa (Tamrat and Levy 2017) and caters to the needs of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians will be significantly weakened. The survey results indicated that private institutions still expect meaningful interventions in areas that include tax exemptions, long-term loans, rent waiver or reduction, direct financial support from the government, assistance with online platforms, reduced internet costs, facilitating student access to computers with reduced costs, etc. While solving the challenges of the economy remains a key to addressing anticipated problems caused by COVID-19, the findings of this survey strongly point to the need for close monitoring of PHE to curb the continued impact of the pandemic. Further, continuous and fruitful dialogues are needed between the government and sector representatives in order to maintain the confidence of PHE institutions in government policy aimed at ensuring their survival.

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