Ethiotime1
2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy arrives to speak with POLITICO journalists at POLITICO’s offices in Arlington, Va., on June 5, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO
With help from Nahal Toosi
VIVEK RAMASWAMY is all over media touting his proposal for ending the war in Ukraine and safeguarding American interests: let Russia keep what it seized in Ukraine and restore economic relations with the West in exchange for some other “major concessions.” Those include an end to Moscow’s partnership with Beijing, the removal of nuclear weapons from Kaliningrad and the return to compliance with the New START treaty on nuclear weapons.
We’ve talked to the Republican presidential candidate before about his plan, but he welcomed NatSec Daily on Thursday to stress test his ideas. “That’s how you get to truth,” he agreed over the phone. What follows is an admittedly condensed synthesis of our 25-minute conversation, but we managed to wrangle some more specifics out of him.
First question: What is the policy toward Ukraine as you strike a deal with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN?
Ramaswamy said he would meet with Putin “early” in his presidency and give him only 72 hours to agree to terms. “I’m not going to let him use time as a way of changing the underlying game,” he said. While they interact, Ramaswamy will freeze military and economic assistance to Ukraine so Moscow trusts Washington’s intentions. Once everything is agreed to, Kyiv can continue fighting Russia — which it most likely will do — but the U.S. will cease its support.
It’s unclear, though, if Ramaswamy would still seek the same deal with Putin if the negotiation took longer than 72 hours. Clearly, the candidate is offering us his Plan A, but the chances he gets exactly what he wants off the bat are small.
Regardless, couldn’t Putin renege on the deal and eventually, after recovering, try and swallow up more of Ukraine?
Ramaswamy doesn’t believe Putin will back out of the deal because he won’t be Chinese leader “XI JINPING’s little brother” anymore and will enjoy the cash windfall. The only thing he says he trusts about Putin is that the Russian will follow his own self interest. But if Putin does back out, then there would be “instant admission of Ukraine to NATO” and a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions beyond where they are today. “You have to deal with bullies in a strong manner,” he said.
Why would Europeans — who have invested so much time, money and weapons — go along with this deal? Would President Ramaswamy reprimand allies who would still want to assist Ukraine?
“It would be a hard NATO commitment,” he said, confident he could get every ally to respect the U.S.-Russia deal. “If not, then I would question U.S. support for NATO.” The “backstop,” should member nations not follow along, is America’s withdrawal from the alliance. But before that step, “we will stop paying for the security infrastructure of Europe and, I think, we are willing to revisit the purpose of NATO itself.”
“I see a more pressing need for PATO, the Pacific American Treaty Organization, than I see for NATO, to actually rise to the occasion of the threat that we see in the 21st century,” Ramaswamy said, referencing China.
He would seek to form that alliance with South Korea, Japan, India, Australia and “much of Southeast Asia” to push back on Beijing. “I think there’s a world in which Russia even plays a role with that,” he said.
The idea of an “Asian NATO” has been around for years, though as of now there’s no real movement to create one. The closest thing to one, perhaps, is “the Quad,” or at least NATO’s intention to open an office in Japan, even if France is against it.
The entrepreneur’s ultimate vision is one of a “trilateral order” where the top three powers are the U.S., China and Russia. The key, he argues, is severing ties between Moscow and Beijing to eliminate that support for Xi’s government.
Ramaswamy, who is currently third in polling among declared candidates in New Hampshire, still has more specifics to think through when it comes to his proposal. He’s got a broad, unorthodox vision but the details require more fine tuning — namely, fully detailing why Russia would upend its decades-long foreign policy over capturing certain slices of Ukraine.
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‘NEW COLD WAR’: Lawmakers are incensed by the reports that China is seeking a foothold in Cuba to spy on the United States.
Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), chair of the House China committee, said in a statement the Biden administration should consider retaliatory actions including “ending Huawei export licenses, restricting outbound investment in crucial sectors of the PRC … and preventing Chinese Communist Party land purchases near military bases.”
Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) said Blinken should not travel to China following the revelation and the recent harassment of American ships and aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region.
“The Chinese Communist Party is executing the Soviet Union’s playbook,” said Waltz, a member of the House Intelligence and Armed Services committees.
The Soviet Union operated its largest signals intelligence site in Lourdes, just outside of Havana, a facility that closed after 2001. “If it’s China’s intent to reopen it, this will be the largest spy base once again,” Waltz said. “If that’s not evidence enough that we’re in a new Cold War, I don’t know what is.”
Two senior U.S. officials, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive intelligence matter, told Alex that “China was in direct conversations with Cuba to set up a base on the island nation just 100 miles from the U.S.” The Wall Street Journal, which first reported on the base plans, said a deal has already been reached.
National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said on MSNBC Thursday that the WSJ’s story, and others like it, are “inaccurate.” The administration has yet to say publicly what, specifically, is wrong with the reporting.
The news could derail the administration’s plans to thaw out frosty U.S.-China relations and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s reported intention to visit China soon.
SHARING IS CARING (ABOUT CHINA): The U.S., Taiwan and Japan are going to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones, the Financial Times’ KATHRIN HILLE and DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO report.
“That capability would be crucial in a war over Taiwan, a scenario in which Chinese surface warships and submarines would operate around the island. It could also enhance the ability of Taiwan and its neighbors to gain a full, real-time picture of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s movements in peacetime in the first island chain, which extends from Japan to the Philippines,” they write.
The U.S. will sell the General Atomics-made MQ-9B Sea Guardian, which will provide these capabilities, to Taiwan starting in 2025.
COUNTEROFFENSIVE UNDERWAY: The majority of the early part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive appears to be in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, a U.S. official told the New York Times. Russian military bloggers “acknowledged an intensification of Ukrainian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia front,” per the NYT, though they claim Russian forces are holding their positions.
Meanwhile, Kyiv has launched an armored assault on Russian positions in southeastern Ukraine, the Financial Times’ CHRISTOPHER MILLER and MAX SEDDON report.
Ukrainian forces have also advanced at least 200 meters in Bakhmut, our own ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH reports.
Britain’s Defense Ministry, in its daily intelligence update, assessed “heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front. In most cases Ukraine holds the initiative.”
Russia bombed a school in Kherson where flood evacuees were sheltering, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. The strike came after Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY visited the southern city Thursday.
‘WE’LL HAVE THE FUNDING’: President JOE BIDEN is confident that Congress will authorize more funds for weapons to Ukraine, even as lawmakers squabble over whether to raise defense spending above the current agreed-to level.
“I believe we’ll have the funding necessary to support Ukraine as long as it takes,” he said during a Thursday news conference alongside British Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK, even though “you hear some voices today on Capitol Hill about whether or not we should continue to support Ukraine and for how long we should support them.”
It’s expected that current U.S. funding for Ukraine will expire by September.
Biden was also asked if if it was time for a British NATO secretary general, as it’s an open secret U.K. Defense Minister BEN WALLACE is interested in the job. “Maybe,” Biden said. “They have a candidate who’s a very qualified individual.”
FOOD FORBADE: The U.S. Agency for International Development is halting deliveries of food aid to Ethiopia after the discovery of a plot to steal the support, the agency confirmed to NatSec Daily.
“After a country-wide review, USAID determined, in coordination with the government of Ethiopia, that a widespread and coordinated campaign is diverting food assistance from the people of Ethiopia. As a result, we made the difficult but necessary decision that we cannot move forward with distribution of food assistance until reforms are in place,” said JESSICA JENNINGS, a spokesperson for USAID. “Our intention is to immediately resume food assistance once we are confident in the integrity of delivery systems to get assistance to its intended recipients.”
The scheme included Ethiopian officials taking the aid and giving it to military members and ex-combatants as well as privately selling the assistance. About 20 million people in Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, are strapped for sustenance following a civil war, drought and inflation.
The Washington Post’s KATHARINE HOURELD first reported the news.
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PENCE TOWN HALL: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE touched on some big natsec issues in his CNN town hall Wednesday night. Here are some highlights.
Ukraine: The U.S. should continue to provide Ukraine “with the resources they need” to “restore their territorial integrity,” adding that Biden has been slow to deliver weapons like F-16s and tanks. He further called Putin a “war criminal.” He said of the conflict: “It’s not our war, but freedom is our fight.”
China: The American military needs significant investments to send a “deafening message” that deters Chinese aggression. “Weakness arouses evil,” he said. He further supported a national ban of TikTok, the Chinese-owned social media platform.
SANCTIONS EVADERS: Western exports of key microchips and electronics that Russia needs to fuel its war machine are back to pre-invasion levels, as Moscow has ramped up efforts to circumvent sanctions, our own CAMILLE GIJS, JAKOB HANKE VELA and NICOLAS CAMUT report.
“By the start of this year, Russia was able to reimport certain key categories of electronics at about pre-war levels,” said U.S. State Department sanctions coordinator JIM O’BRIEN at an ECFR event in Stockholm, referring to chips, processors and integrated circuits key to making modern weapons.
The problem, O’Brien said, is that European companies are selling to other countries, which in turn resell the materials to Russia. He added that the U.S. has identified issues with five countries in particular: Turkey, Kazakhstan, Georgia, the United Arab Emirates and Armenia.
Trade between Russia and several countries from the Caucasus and Central Asia close to Moscow — including Georgia, Kazakhstan and Armenia — has surged since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
MISSILES WANTED: Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are renewing pressure on the White House to send Ukraine controversial long-range munitions, as Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive appears to get underway, our LARA SELIGMAN and JOE GOULD report.
A group of House members led by Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) is spearheading the campaign. In a letter to Biden on Thursday, nine lawmakers urged the president to quickly greenlight the Army Tactical Missile System, which has a range of 190 miles, nearly four times that of Ukraine’s existing rockets.
“By swiftly providing the Ukrainian forces with these additional capabilities, we can significantly improve their chances of victory, restore peace to Europe, and ensure a more stable and prosperous world,” wrote the group of lawmakers, which included three Republicans and six Democrats.
Nearly a year ago, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN feared that sending ATACMS could make the conflict eventually spiral into World War III, because Ukraine could use the weapon to attack deep inside Russian territory. More recently, there are growing concerns inside the Pentagon that the U.S. doesn’t have many to spare anyway.
The letter also calls on the president to approve other advanced weaponry, including U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and additional air defense capabilities such as another Patriot missile defense system.
NO CONTEMPT: House Republicans are backing away from a high-profile vote to hold FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY in contempt of Congress, after the FBI offered to let all committee members review a 2020 document at the center of the standoff, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports.
The Oversight Committee had been scheduled to meet Thursday on a resolution holding Wray in contempt as it ramped up a GOP investigation into Biden. But Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) announced Wednesday night that he was calling off the vote.
Republicans have zeroed-in on the document, which they claim accuses the president of receiving payments from a foreign national in exchange for policy decisions as vice president.
NOT READY FOR NATO: Ukraine is pleading for binding security guarantees to ensure long-term survival. But despite months of conversations, the Western alliance is still divided over nearly every element of how to respond to the request, according to five European diplomats, per our own LILI BAYER.
The questions the diplomats say remain open: Should NATO, which Ukraine is aspiring to join, be having that conversation? Or should the world’s biggest military powers provide individual pledges? Are any guarantees short of NATO membership worthwhile? And what even constitutes a “security guarantee?”
That’s a lot to consider five weeks ahead of a gathering in Vilnius for a key NATO summit. Many allies don’t actually want to give Ukraine a concrete timetable for joining NATO at the moment. But they also don’t want to leave Ukrainians disappointed or vulnerable to yet another invasion down the line.
“Ukraine is the most experienced country in the world in hearing ‘no’ from NATO,” lamented Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration OLHA STEFANISHYNA. She added that clarity is needed “that Ukraine’s NATO membership is inevitable and will not be some kind of bargain[ing] chip.”
— The White House will nominate MICHAEL CASEY to serve as director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center. The longtime Democratic staff director for the Senate Intelligence Committee was a staff member on the House Armed Services Committee for nearly a decade, and has spent more than 27 years on Capitol Hill.
— IULIIA MENDEL, POLITICO: Life along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia
— MICHELE BARBERO, Foreign Policy: Can France’s big bucks fill the defense gaps?
— JAMES OLNEY, ESPN: How Ukraine champions Shakhtar conduct transfers in a warzone
— State Department, 9 a.m.: Advisory Committee on International Law
— Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 10 a.m.:Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
— Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: Is your data AI-ready?
— Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 6 p.m.: 2023 WILLIAM OLIVER BAKER Award Dinner
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who never gets specific with us.
We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a font of specific knowledge.
A message from Lockheed Martin:
Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more.
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